CASE STUDY: Data links Covid-19 lockdowns to consumption change
Producing real-time information
A recent analysis was carried out on water consumption pattern changes in the city of Karlsruhe, Germany.
This showed how Covid-19 related societal changes are directly impacting when and how much water people are consuming.
A rise in the number of Covid-19 cases in early March prompted the German government to take further measures.
在巴登 - 符腾堡州的状态下，学校于3月17日关闭，其他措施逐步增强，以限制更多的社会活动和公共生活。
水实用程序Stadtwerke Karlsruhe（Swka）在巴登 - 符腾堡州的国家提供超过400,000名居民的地区。
Using the WatEner Platform from the Spanish company, the Inclam Group, SWKA integrated measured and simulated data from different sources, producing information in real-time.
“The slope of consumption curve at the beginning of the day is higher under normal situation (before Covid-19 measures) and lower after the measures were adopted, with a demand peak that occurred approximately two hours later,” said Jorge Helmbrecht, general manager at WatEner (Inclam Group).
然而,在之后的星期一th, this shifts to 9.40 am under lockdown measures, which is more akin to consumption behaviour during the weekends.
Impacts on forecast demand
So what does the data from this analysis mean for the German water utility?
The Demand Forecast System (DFS) used applies Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Pattern Recognition Techniques, adapting to meteorological parameters, as well as changes in consumer behaviour.
通过分析“精灵”od March 1-24, the AI system adjusts to the changing pattern in consumption behaviour caused by the Covid-19 emergency.
“The system can adapt quickly to the new consumption patterns, providing a precise demand forecast using algorithms without the need for manual inputs," adds Helmbrecht.
The first day of school closing and lockdown measures (March 17) shows a steeper slope in the forecasted demand (as expected in a typical Tuesday of March) than the real demand.
Helmbrecht concludes that despite the recognised patterns, more data is still needed and he is working on a more detailed study.
“A more in-depth analysis and more data are probably needed to draw wider conclusions on demand changes related to the Covid-19 lockdown situation,” he said.
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